Is Photovoltaik Still Worth It in 2026? The Honest Calculation with 3 Scenarios
The short answer upfront: Yes, photovoltaik is still worth it in 2026 for most homeowners. But the calculation has become more complex. While in 2022 every system was automatically profitable, today your self-consumption decides profit or loss.
This article breaks down three scenarios year by year – with real numbers, current sources, and a return comparison against an alternative investment.
Current Figures (July 2026)
Before we calculate, the relevant parameters:
| Parameter | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Feed-in tariff partial feed-in ≤10 kWp | 7.78 ct/kWh | ADAC [1], logicenergy [2] |
| Feed-in tariff full feed-in ≤10 kWp | 12.34 ct/kWh | ADAC [1], reduco.ai [3] |
| Next degression | 01.08.2026 (−1%) | EEG 2023 |
| Electricity price existing customers | 31–37 ct/kWh (ø 32) | BDEW [4] |
| Levelized cost of electricity PV (without storage) | 8–12 ct/kWh | Fraunhofer ISE [5] |
| VAT on PV systems | 0% (since 2023) | Finanztip [6] |
| Tax exemption PV (§3 No.72 EStG) | up to 30 kWp/unit | Finanztip [6] |
Costs of a PV System 2026
Prices have fallen by around 20–30% compared to 2023–2024:
| Component | Cost (incl. 0% VAT) |
|---|---|
| 10 kWp system (modules + inverter + installation) | €12,000–€16,000 |
| 10 kWh storage (retrofit) | €4,000–€5,000 |
| Complete system with storage | €16,000–€22,000 |
| Annual maintenance/operation | €100–€200 |
Module prices are at a historic low in 2026 – Chinese overcapacity is driving prices down [7]. At the same time, demand in Germany is high: In May 2026, the 6-million-systems mark was surpassed [8].
Scenario 1: Optimistic — High Self-Consumption + Storage
Assumption: You have a 10 kWp system, a 10 kWh storage battery, and you actively optimize your self-consumption (heating rod, timers, EV charging during sunshine).
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| System cost | €18,000 (incl. storage) |
| Annual yield | 9,500 kWh |
| Self-consumption rate | 70% |
| Self-consumed | 6,650 kWh |
| Fed into grid | 2,850 kWh |
| Savings from self-consumption (32 ct/kWh) | €2,128/year |
| Feed-in revenue (7.78 ct) | €222/year |
| Maintenance costs | −€150/year |
| Annual surplus | €2,200/year |
Amortization: 8.2 years — thereafter €2,200/year profit.
Scenario 2: Realistic — Moderate Self-Consumption, No Storage
Assumption: 10 kWp system without storage. Normal usage, no active optimization.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| System cost | €14,000 (without storage) |
| Annual yield | 9,500 kWh |
| Self-consumption rate | 30% |
| Self-consumed | 2,850 kWh |
| Fed into grid | 6,650 kWh |
| Savings from self-consumption (32 ct/kWh) | €912/year |
| Feed-in revenue (7.78 ct) | €517/year |
| Maintenance costs | −€150/year |
| Annual surplus | €1,279/year |
Amortization: 10.9 years — thereafter €1,279/year profit.
Scenario 3: Pessimistic — Full Feed-In
Assumption: You feed all electricity into the grid (e.g., because nobody is home during the day or you’re renting out the property). You receive the higher full feed-in tariff of 12.34 ct/kWh.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| System cost | €14,000 |
| Annual yield | 9,500 kWh |
| Self-consumption rate | 0% |
| Fed into grid | 9,500 kWh |
| Feed-in revenue (12.34 ct) | €1,172/year |
| Maintenance costs | −€150/year |
| Annual surplus | €1,022/year |
Amortization: 13.7 years — thereafter €1,022/year profit.
The Break-Even Table (Year by Year)
Here’s how the investment develops in Scenario 2 (realistic):
| Year | Cumulative Revenue | Costs | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | €0 | −€14,000 | −€14,000 |
| 1 | €1,279 | €0 | −€12,721 |
| 2 | €2,558 | €0 | −€11,442 |
| 3 | €3,837 | €0 | −€10,163 |
| 4 | €5,116 | €0 | −€8,884 |
| 5 | €6,395 | €0 | −€7,605 |
| 6 | €7,674 | €0 | −€6,326 |
| 7 | €8,953 | €0 | −€5,047 |
| 8 | €10,232 | €0 | −€3,768 |
| 9 | €11,511 | €0 | −€2,489 |
| 10 | €12,790 | €0 | −€1,210 |
| 11 | €14,069 | €0 | +€69 ✓ |
| 15 | €19,185 | €0 | +€5,185 |
| 20 | €25,580 | €0 | +€11,580 |
After the 20-year EEG term:
- Optimistic: +€44,000 profit (return ~7.5% p.a.)
- Realistic: +€11,580 profit (return ~4.1% p.a.)
- Pessimistic: +€6,440 profit (return ~2.5% p.a.)
Comparison with Alternative Investment: PV vs. ETF
What if you put that €14,000 into an ETF (MSCI World, 7% p.a.) instead?
| PV (Scenario 2) | ETF MSCI World | |
|---|---|---|
| Investment | €14,000 | €14,000 |
| Value after 20 years | €25,580 | €54,174 |
| Return p.a. | 4.1% | 7.0% |
| Risk | Low | Medium |
| Taxes | Tax-free ⭐ | 25% capital gains tax |
| Inflation protection | ✓ (electricity price rises) | ✓ (historically) |
| Liquidity | ✗ (tied up) | ✓ (sellable anytime) |
At first glance, the ETF clearly beats PV. But:
- You don’t save the €14,000 PV investment from your bank account — you often finance it via KfW or take it from your home renovation budget.
- Electricity prices historically rise 3–5% per year. The ETF return of 7% is nominal, while PV savings scale with inflation.
- After 20 years the system is yours — modules last 30+ years, even after EEG remuneration ends. After that, the system produces electricity at practically no cost.
- You become more independent — during electricity price shocks (like 2022), PV protects you.
Realistically, PV is not a return bet, but insurance. You won’t get rich from it, but you lower your monthly fixed costs and protect yourself from electricity price increases.
When Is PV Worth It in 2026? The Honest Checklist
Worth it if you meet these criteria:
| Criterion | Met? |
|---|---|
| You own a home with a suitable roof (south/southeast/southwest, 25–45°) | ⬜ |
| Your annual electricity consumption is above 3,000 kWh | ⬜ |
| You are regularly at home during the day (home office, family, retirement) | ⬜ |
| You have an EV or heat pump (massively increases self-consumption) | ⬜ |
| You are willing to wait 8–11 years for break-even | ⬜ |
| You plan to live in your house for 10+ years | ⬜ |
If 4+ boxes are checked → Worth it. If not → think carefully.
NOT worth it if:
- You rent (no access to your own roof)
- Your roof is shaded (north-facing, trees)
- You plan to move within the next 5 years
- You can only do full feed-in (low return, long amortization)
What Changes in 2027?
Policymakers are discussing a reform of the feed-in tariff. From 2027, the CfD model (Contract for Difference) could be introduced [9], which ties remuneration more closely to the market. However, for systems going online in 2026, the 20-year fixed remuneration under the current EEG still applies — planning security is guaranteed.
Bottom line: Anyone installing a PV system in 2026 gets the current rates locked in for 20 years. The degression reduces rates every 6 months by 1% — so better to act sooner rather than later. And the most important lever for returns is you: The more electricity you consume yourself, the more profitable the system becomes.
Sources
[1] ADAC: “Einspeisevergütung 2026: Aktuelle EEG-Förderung für PV-Anlagen”. adac.de (as of 02.04.2026, accessed 01.07.2026).
[2] logicenergy.de: “EEG-Vergütung 2026: Sätze, Tabelle & CfD-Reform”. logicenergy.de (accessed 01.07.2026).
[3] reduco.ai: “Einspeisevergütung 2026: aktuelle Sätze ab 7,78 ct/kWh”. reduco.ai/blog (17.06.2026, accessed 01.07.2026).
[4] BDEW Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft: “Strompreisanalyse 2026”. Household electricity price approx. 32 ct/kWh at 2,500–5,000 kWh annual consumption.
[5] Fraunhofer ISE: “Stromgestehungskosten Erneuerbare Energien”, Study 2025/2026. PV roof systems: 8.1–12.2 ct/kWh.
[6] Finanztip: “Photovoltaik 2026: Wann sich eine PV-Anlage für Dich lohnt”. finanztip.de (28.05.2026, accessed 01.07.2026).
[7] pv magazine: “Modulpreise auf historischem Tief – chinesische Überkapazitäten drücken die Kosten”. pv-magazine.de (2026).
[8] solaranlage-ratgeber.de: “Solar-News Juni 2026: EEG-Reform stockt, sechs Millionen Anlagen erreicht”. solaranlage-ratgeber.de (accessed 01.07.2026).
[9] BMWK: “Eckpunkte zur EEG-Reform 2027 – Marktprämie und CfD-Modell”. As of June 2026.
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